Tropical Cyclone BERGUITTA – Daily Update 18 January 2018 00:00 UTC

[box type=”shadow” class=”” width=”” background=#000000]The African Risk Capacity monitors tropical cyclone activity in the South-West Indian Ocean (SWIO) and relies on Africa RiskView, a disaster risk modelling platform that uses satellite-based and other geo-information to forecast wind speed and storm surge height and estimate population affected and economic loss. These modelled losses are the underlying basis of the insurance policies issued by the ARC Insurance Company Limited, the financial affiliate of the ARC Agency, which pools risk across the continent.[/box]

Name Event Number Naming Date Current Position Current Wind Speed
BERGUITTA 06 13/01/18 –19.7S 59.5E 120 km/h

[tabs type=”horizontal”]
[tab_title] Forecasts [/tab_title]
[tab_title] Population Affected [/tab_title]

The following maps shows the actual and forecast (dotted line) cyclone track, as well as the forecast peak wind speed at the time of reporting (see map title):

Berguitta 201801180000 Windspeed

The following map shows the forecast peak surge depth at the time of reporting:

NB: It is important to note that these maps are based on forecasts, which will be updated as soon as the next update on the cyclone track is released.


Based on the forecasts presented under the previous tabs, Africa RiskView calculates the potential number of people affected by the tropical cyclone. The table below shows the number of people affected (by different categories of wind speed). It is important to note that these are forecast-based and thus subject to change as soon as the next update on the cyclone track is released:

Location / Category Population affected
– Weak Tropical Storm 67,471 100.0%
– Strong Tropical Storm 67,471 100.0%
– Category 1 (74-95mph) 69 0.1%
– Weak Tropical Storm 139,348 100.0%
– Strong Tropical Storm 100,333 72.0%
– Weak Tropical Storm 118,023 100.0%
– Strong Tropical Storm 118,023 100.0%
– Weak Tropical Storm 84,053 100.0%
– Strong Tropical Storm 72,995 86.8%
– Weak Tropical Storm 136,140 100.0%
– Strong Tropical Storm 136,140 100.0%
– Weak Tropical Storm 398,875 100.0%
– Strong Tropical Storm 387,915 97.3%
– Weak Tropical Storm 142,382 100.0%
– Strong Tropical Storm 142,382 100.0%
– Weak Tropical Storm 110,081 100.0%
– Strong Tropical Storm 110,081 100.0%
– Weak Tropical Storm 39,590 100.0%
– Strong Tropical Storm 39,590 100.0%
– Weak Tropical Storm 73,892 100.0%
– Strong Tropical Storm 73,892 100.0%
– Category 1 (74-95mph) 35,179 47.6%
Location / Category Population affected
– Weak Tropical Storm 830,405 100.0%
– Strong Tropical Storm 701,879 84.5%
– Category 1 (74-95mph) 104,426 12.6%