Tropical Cyclone BERGUITTA – Daily Update 19 January 2018 00:00 UTC

[box type=”shadow” class=”” width=”” background=#000000]The African Risk Capacity monitors tropical cyclone activity in the South-West Indian Ocean (SWIO) and relies on Africa RiskView, a disaster risk modelling platform that uses satellite-based and other geo-information to forecast wind speed and storm surge height and estimate population affected and economic loss. These modelled losses are the underlying basis of the insurance policies issued by the ARC Insurance Company Limited, the financial affiliate of the ARC Agency, which pools risk across the continent.[/box]

Name Event Number Naming Date Current Position Current Wind Speed
BERGUITTA 06 13/01/18 –22.8S 54.2E 100 km/h

[tabs type=”horizontal”]
[tab_title] Forecasts [/tab_title]
[tab_title] Population Affected [/tab_title]

The following maps shows the actual and forecast (dotted line) cyclone track, as well as the forecast peak wind speed at the time of reporting (see map title):

The following map shows the forecast peak surge depth at the time of reporting:

NB: It is important to note that these maps are based on forecasts, which will be updated as soon as the next update on the cyclone track is released.


Based on the forecasts presented under the previous tabs, Africa RiskView calculates the potential number of people affected by the tropical cyclone. The table below shows the number of people affected (by different categories of wind speed). It is important to note that these are forecast-based and thus subject to change as soon as the next update on the cyclone track is released:

Location / Category Population affected
– Weak Tropical Storm 67,471 100.0%
– Strong Tropical Storm 67,471 100.0%
– Weak Tropical Storm 139,348 100.0%
– Strong Tropical Storm 40,125 28.8%
– Weak Tropical Storm 118,023 100.0%
– Strong Tropical Storm 111,823 94.7%
– Weak Tropical Storm 84,053 100.0%
– Strong Tropical Storm 50,697 60.3%
– Weak Tropical Storm 136,140 100.0%
– Strong Tropical Storm 131,979 96.9%
– Weak Tropical Storm 398,875 100.0%
– Strong Tropical Storm 324,045 81.2%
– Weak Tropical Storm 142,382 100.0%
– Strong Tropical Storm 142,272 99.9%
– Weak Tropical Storm 110,081 100.0%
– Strong Tropical Storm 104,492 94.9%
– Weak Tropical Storm 39,590 100.0%
– Strong Tropical Storm 39,590 100.0%
– Weak Tropical Storm 73,892 100.0%
– Strong Tropical Storm 70,204 95.0%
– Category 1 (74-95mph) 31,246 42.3%
Location / Category Population affected
– Weak Tropical Storm 830,405 100.0%
– Strong Tropical Storm 300,288 36.2%
– Category 1 (74-95mph) 190,728 23.0%